An annual report detailing how many Californians were the victims of violence over the past year finds a slight dip in reported violence among most populations, but a sharp increase in reported violence against transgender people.
—
sfist.com (emphasis added)
Nothing I say here is intended to disparage trans people . . . I’m fine with adults doing what they want, dressing the way they want, acting the way they want, with a few minor restrictions — keep your hands to yourself, that sort of thing.
I don’t really care about trans people. But I take exception to being lied to by people advancing an agenda.
That said, the report mentioned in the article above is based on the fourth annual California Violence Experiences Survey, conducted by UC San Diego and Tulane University. If you look at it, you see that there was no “sharp increase in reported violence against transgender people” because previous surveys didn’t track responses for transgender people.
The article actually mentions that if you read all the way to the bottom:
It’s important to note that this was the first time that the UCSD/Tulane study tracked responses for non-binary and trans people.
So technically, it would not be accurate to say the study found that reports of violence against trans and non-binary people are “up,” because there is no data from the previous year for comparison.
“It’s important to note” that “technically, it would not be accurate …”
It wouldn’t be accurate “technically” or any other way. I’m not seeing the point of making an assertion in the lead paragraph that you know to be false and then following it up with an acknowledgement that the assertion is false.
As far as the claim in the headline, it’s an unlikely claim for which no plausible explanation is offered, so I’ll offer one. First, I have to share something I learned in Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
A study of new diagnoses of kidney cancer in the 3,141 counties of the United States reveals that the counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer are lowest are mostly rural, sparsely populated, and located in traditionally Republican states in the Midwest, the South and the West.
What do you make of this?
Now consider the counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer is highest. These counties tend to be mostly rural, sparsely populated, and located in traditionally Republican states in the Midwest, the South and the West.
The key factor is “sparsely populated.”
Most people know The Law of Large Numbers but there’s also a Law of Small Numbers, which says that small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples. Basically the Law of Large Numbers restated in reverse.
The survey sample was 98% cisgender and 2% transgender.
I don’t know if the Law of Small Numbers explains the claim in the headline, but since no other explanation was offered, I offered one.
It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that disproportionate violence toward trans people is a phony claim. Riley Gaines gives a talk at a college campus, after which she’s attacked by a trans mob and has to barricade herself in a room for her own safety. Matt Walsh has security personnel actually living in his house.
I’ve never seen or heard about Lia Thomas, for example, being physically attacked by anyone. Or Dylan Mulvaney. Or Caitlyn Jenner. They all move about freely while Riley Gaines needs police protection to appear in public. Almost every news item I see with an intersection of trans people and violence involves an angry trans mob, not a violent attack on a trans person.
The article concludes by saying “that a nationwide trend of violence against trans people is also impacting the state of California.”
The link, which is in the original article, goes to an article with the headline Report says at least 32 transgender people were killed in the U.S. in 2022.
Is 32 a lot? It doesn’t seem like a lot. Is there really “a nationwide trend of violence” against trans people? We’ve got to do some more math.
According to the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law, an estimated 1.4 million adults in the United States identify as transgender. This represents 0.6% of the adult U.S. population. So 32 murders among 0.6% of the adult population would project to 5,333 murders for 100% of the adult population.
That is nowhere close to the actual number. According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, there were 24,985 murders in the United States in 2022. Of these, 19,240 were murders of people aged 18 and over.
So no evidence of “a nationwide trend of violence.”
I would think that making assertions based on false statements and phony math would hurt you more than help you, but people are going to believe what they want to believe anyway. True statements about trans people are easily dismissed by calling people who make them hateful, transphobic, dangerous and far-right.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta has defied a court order by directing school districts to adopt policies that allow them to hide a student’s claimed transgender identity from parents or guardians, despite a federal judge’s ruling that such policies likely violate the U.S. Constitution, lawyers say.
Bonta sent a letter to school districts across California, encouraging them to adopt secretive transgender policies.
When my son was younger, my hottest hot button was “Do not fuck around with my kid.” Now that my son is an adult, I don’t know if I have a hottest hot button, but one of my hottest hot buttons is “Don’t fuck around with other people’s kids.”
I absolutely believe in the right of parents to direct the education, health and upbringing, and to maintain the well-being of, their children.
Do I think a lot of parents do a poor job of that? Yes. But I still believe in their right to do it.
One of the reasons that’s sometimes cited for not informing parents of a student’s transgender identity is a right of privacy.
Children don’t have a right of privacy from their parents. I learned when my son was an adult and went to college that his consent (which he granted) was required for his mom or me to access his health records, grades — anything, really. It seems obvious enough to me that a school does not have the right to withhold health records, grades or anything else regarding a minor child, and I’m including gender dysphoria as a health issue.
Another reason often given for not informing parents is “safety.” “Safety” has become synonymous with “whatever I want to do.” Similarly, whatever I don’t want to do is “dangerous,” as in “Forced outing [another great term] of children to their parents could be dangerous.”
I have to call total bullshit on that one, as school personnel in California are mandated reporters, meaning if they suspect a student is living in a dangerous situation, they’re required to report that to the appropriate agency and it has nothing to do with gender identity.
Finally, and most importantly, secretive transgender policies seem to me to check all the boxes for grooming:
- Gaining access and isolating the victim: Abusers will attempt to physically or emotionally separate a victim from those protecting them (e.g., drive a wedge between students and parents) and often seek out positions in which they have contact with minors.
- Trust development and keeping secrets: Abusers attempt to gain trust of a potential victim through sharing “secrets” and other means to make them feel that they have a caring relationship and to train them to keep the relationship secret.
- Desensitization to discussion of sexual topics: Abusers may show the victim pornography (the school library probably has some) or discuss sexual topics with them, to introduce the idea of sexual contact.
Next step: Blackmail the child. It would be bad for you if our little secret got out, wouldn’t it?
You might say, “How dare you suggest that a teacher would do something like that?” Well — the teacher is already a self-professed liar. If teachers are willing to lie to parents, why wouldn’t they lie to students? A liar is a liar.
Also, on any given day in our great land, you can find a teacher being arrested for sexual contact with a student. It’s not even surprising anymore. Granted, these seem to mostly be heterosexual relationships but there’s no reason why that has to be the case.
If you’re a parent, make your own choices, but if I still had a school-age child, I would get him the hell out of any school that was committed to secretive transgender policies.
He’s got a fair point there because the statute regarding “obstructing congressional proceedings” is what a lot of J6ers are charged with. It carries a maximum sentence, I believe, of 20 years in prison, which allows lengthy sentences to be doled out to people who entered a building and walked around.
Yes, you entered a building and walked around but we were trying to conduct a congressional proceeding and you obstructed it.
And in the words of Bob Dylan,
To show that all’s equal and that the courts are on the level
And that the strings in the books ain’t pulled and persuaded
And that even the nobles get properly handled
Once that the cops have chased after and caught ’em
And that the ladder of law has no top and no bottom,
I’d like to see Rep. Bowman face the same charge.
