EppsNet Archive: Experts

Experts and Empty Suits

Our inability to predict in environments subjected to the Black Swan, coupled with a general lack of awareness of this state of affairs, means that certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not. Based on their empirical record, they do not know more about their subject than the general population, but they are much better at narrating… Read more →

Topics

The top five problems you have with <topic> and how to solve them Why <topic> sucks and what we can do about it Mistakes I made in <topic> and what I learned The most frequently asked questions and brilliant answers about <topic> The truth about <topic> and how it can help you Smart shortcuts and clever tricks only experts know… Read more →

When Death Is Not Death

A certain man was believed to have died, and was being prepared for burial, when he revived. He sat up, but he was so shocked by the scene surrounding him that he fainted. He was put in a coffin, and the funeral party set off for the cemetery. Just as they arrived at the grave, he regained consciousness, lifted the… Read more →

‘Expert’ Predictions for the NBA Finals

26 experts give their predictions for the championship series rematch between the Warriors and Cavaliers. — ESPN.com “Experts.” Provide some insight or context if you have any. How does a prediction add to anyone’s understanding or enjoyment of the game? What is the difference between a prediction from an “expert” and a prediction from a random loudmouth drunk at a… Read more →

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

The notion that we have limited access to the workings of our minds is difficult to accept because, naturally, it is alien to our experience but it is true: You know far less about yourself than you feel you do.   A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from… Read more →

Which Experts Predicted a UConn-Kentucky Title Game?

PunditTracker tracked March Madness 2014 brackets for 26 “experts” from ESPN, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports, plus President Obama. Number of pundits who picked UConn to win the tournament: Zero. Number of pundits who picked either UConn or Kentucky to reach the final game: Zero. Number of pundits who picked either UConn or Kentucky to reach the Final Four:… Read more →

Which Experts Predicted a Red Sox-Cardinals World Series?

With two storied franchises making the 2013 Fall Classic, let’s take a look at which of the 63 experts we tracked this year (from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox) pegged the series correctly. (… Calculating …) (… Calculating …) Well, how’s this for embarassing: 0 of the 63 so-called experts had both the Red Sox and Cardinals in… Read more →