Predicting the Unpredictable

22 Mar 2007 /
A long range weather forecast should be obtained before leaving, as weather conditions are extremely unpredictable.
Natal Daily News

I pulled that quote from a Ron Jeffries sig file. It’s a great Zen-like nugget that sums up the typical approach to software development, i.e., it’s an unpredictable business, so we’ll do lots of upfront planning . . . ignoring the fact that the inherent unpredictability makes dependable upfront planning impossible.

2 Comments on Predicting the Unpredictable »

  1. 23 Mar 2007 @ 7:05 am

    Boy,…this is SO true. This is why i prefer smaller companies, too. A venture capital friend explains it like this: I want the software developers to be like the mortar companies in WWI. They fired one round off as fast as they could, saw where it landed and adjusted. Any pre planning, ie finding the windage, etc, was just wasted time. Fire. It is very easy to fall into the planninguntilwearesureabouteverything approach.

  2. kabababrubarta

    26 Mar 2007 @ 4:25 pm

    Cool! kabababrubarta

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