EppsNet Archive: Predictions

Experts and Empty Suits

Our inability to predict in environments subjected to the Black Swan, coupled with a general lack of awareness of this state of affairs, means that certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not. Based on their empirical record, they do not know more about their subject than the general population, but they are much better at narrating… Read more →

See You in Hell

[See You in Hell is a feature by our guest blogger, Satan — PE] I hate to say I told you so. See you in Hell . . . Read more →

Even Stephen A. Smith is Right Occasionally

From the Blind Squirrel Finds a Nut files: Stephen A. Smith calls Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Warriors “the weakest move I’ve ever seen from a superstar.” Stephen A. Smith is never right about anything. In case you missed it, Stephen A. Smith has picked the last six NBA Finals winners incorrectly. It’s hard to be that wrong. How… Read more →

‘Expert’ Predictions for the NBA Finals

26 experts give their predictions for the championship series rematch between the Warriors and Cavaliers. — ESPN.com “Experts.” Provide some insight or context if you have any. How does a prediction add to anyone’s understanding or enjoyment of the game? What is the difference between a prediction from an “expert” and a prediction from a random loudmouth drunk at a… Read more →

More People I’m Sick Unto Death Of: Joe Lunardi

Does anyone have a more useless job than “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi? He spends the entire college basketball season forecasting tournament seedings: this team’s in, this team’s out, this team’s on the bubble, this team is going to be seeded number whatever . . . Then the season ends and the actual tournament seedings are announced, making all of Joe Lunardi’s… Read more →

No One Seems to Understand Point Spreads

I lost track of the number of headlines I saw this week regarding how USC (3-3) could possibly be a 3.5-point favorite over undefeated and third-ranked Utah (6-0). It’s weird that no one in sports journalism seems to understand what a point spread really is. It’s not a prediction. It’s not a scientific analysis. It’s a gambling mechanism. The only… Read more →

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

The notion that we have limited access to the workings of our minds is difficult to accept because, naturally, it is alien to our experience but it is true: You know far less about yourself than you feel you do.   A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from… Read more →

Which Experts Predicted a Red Sox-Cardinals World Series?

With two storied franchises making the 2013 Fall Classic, let’s take a look at which of the 63 experts we tracked this year (from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox) pegged the series correctly. (… Calculating …) (… Calculating …) Well, how’s this for embarassing: 0 of the 63 so-called experts had both the Red Sox and Cardinals in… Read more →

Predictions

When did it become so imperative for sports pundits to make predictions on every goddamn game? Predictions are like assholes — everybody’s got one and they’re all full of shit. Give me some insight if you have some, but spare me the fucking picks! We may as well listen to people guess how many jellybeans are in the 10-gallon jar. Read more →