EppsNet Archive: Stock Market

Today Would Have Been a Good Day

I’ve always been tempted to short Abercrombie & Fitch stock based on the abysmal quality of people I see wearing their merchandise. Today would have been a good day to actually do it, as a deal to sell the company fell through (If you’re not familiar with stock charts, today’s activity is reflected in the vertical purple bar plummeting toward the bottom right of the chart.) Read more →

Could Donald Trump Have Made More Money in an Index Fund?

I’ve seen this theory advanced by multiple sources, including the attached clipping, which I saw on Facebook. I don’t know the original source, but the finger-painting reference is a clue that the author has an anti-Trump agenda, hasn’t done the math and is just repeating something that may or may not be true for the benefit of anyone predisposed to believe it. The actual National Journal article, which is targeted at readers who don’t know much about history, math or the Trump family, says this: By putting his inheritance into the stock market back in the 1970s, [Donald] Trump might have been “really rich” without all the drama. . . . Had the celebrity businessman and Republican presidential candidate invested his eventual share of his father’s real-estate company into a mutual fund of S&P 500 stocks in 1974, it would be worth nearly $3 billion today, thanks to the market’s… Read more →

Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion

In 1978, [Leonard] Koppett revealed a system that he claimed could determine, by the end of January every year, whether the stock market would go up or down in that calendar year. [Koppett’s system] worked for eleven straight years, from 1979 through 1989, got it wrong in 1990, and was correct again every year until 1998. But although Koppett’s predictions were correct for a streak of eighteen out of nineteen years, I feel confident in asserting that his streak involved no skill whatsoever. Why? Because Leonard Koppett was a columnist for Sporting News, and his system was based on the results of the Super Bowl, the championship game of professional football. Whenever the team from the (original) National Football League won, the stock market, he predicted, would rise. Whenever the team from the (original) American Football League won, he predicted the market would go down. Given that information, few people would argue that Koppett was anything but… Read more →

Drink Recipe

This is a great drink to beat the heat and smooth out market volatility. Pour some rum over ice and top it off with cola. Garnish with a lime wedge (optional). I need to think of a name for this . . . Read more →

There is No Such Thing as Information Overload

Looking over my notes from an Edward Tufte course . . . There is no such thing as information overload, just bad design. Example: Google News presents hundreds of links on a single page and no one complains about information overload. Example: The financial section of the newspaper presents thousands of numbers and no one complains about information overload. Read more →

Obama the Entertainer

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 300 points to end below the 6800 mark for the first time in nearly 12 years, as a broad-based selloff seized the markets, sending shares lower in every sector. The S&P 500 briefly dropped below 700 for the first time since October 1996 before ending just at that level amid across-the-board declines, including drops of more than 6% in basic materials, energy, financial and industrial sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4%. — WSJ.com, March 2, 2009 CONGA! Read more →

Let’s Get Fiscal

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. — Warren Buffett BIG DEAL! I said the same thing last week! Who needs Warren Buffett when you have a good dog? Talking about Warren Buffett is making me hungry because his name looks like “buffet.” I wish someone would open an all-you-can-eat buffet restaurant for dogs. I would invest in that . . . — Lightning Read more →

Dog Investors

Hi Everybody — I saw this headline today on an Associated Press story: As a dog investor myself, I just wanted to assure you that I am not worried. In fact, I’m sleeping like a puppy . . . The key to investing is taking a long-term view of the market. Stocks are down? It’s a buying opportunity! Among the stocks I’m currently recommending are PetSmart (PETM) – Woof woof! Volcom (VLCM), Under Armour (UA) – I see lots of young humans wearing these brands. BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) – I’ve never been but my owner says it’s really good and always crowded! Sonic Corporation (SONC) – I love the commercials with the two people talking in the car! So funny! — Lightning Read more →

Good News, Bad News

First the bad news: ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! THERE’S NOTHING BUT BAD NEWS! THE HOUSING MARKET HAS COLLAPSED! GLOBAL MARKETS ARE IMPLODING! EVERYTHING IS SPINNING OUT OF CONTROL! THE FALCON CANNOT HEAR THE FALCONER! THE CEREMONY OF INNOCENCE IS DROWNED! THE BEST LACK ALL CONVICTION WHILE THE WORST ARE FULL OF PASSIONATE INTENSITY! EVERYBODY PANIC! OK, now the good news: Hmmm . . . well . . . as long as I have a job, I can make enough to live on . . . I think . . . Read more →

Depression 2.0

Mr. Obama is proposing to raise taxes on capital gains and dividends by a staggering two-thirds, moving the rate up 10 percentage points to 25%, which could curtail investment and business on Wall Street, a backbone of the city’s and state’s economy. — New York Sun OK, let me get this straight . . . the stock market’s dropping, banks are failing from lack of liquidity, no one wants to invest in American companies, and Obama’s solution is to raise the capital gains tax?! In the event of an Obama presidency, I will taking a long position in blankets, canned goods and shotgun shells . . . Read more →

This Doesn’t Look Good, Indy

IndyMac, my former employer, laid off another 3,800 people this week, more than half the remaining work force. I got the axe myself almost exactly a year ago. Prediction — at job interviews, these people will hear something I heard a lot during my own interviews: “We’re seeing a lot of applicants from the mortgage industry.” Yeah . . . tell me something I didn’t know. The Elite Mortgage Daily Blog has helpfully provided a brief history of IndyMac stock: Read more →

Warren Buffett Gets the Last Laugh

Warren Buffett published his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this week: Our gain in net worth during 2003 was $13.6 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 21%. Over the last 39 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $50,498, a rate of 22.2% compounded annually. Read more →